This report represents information for the week ending June 24, 2022.

Market is unsettled. Total beef production for last week was down 1.3% from prior week and was up 0.3% compared to same time last year.  Total headcount for last week was 667,000 as compared to 664,000 for the same time last year.  Live weights for last week were down 4 lbs. from prior week, but up 1 lb. from same time last year.  Live cattle prices have pushed higher over the past few weeks and continue to trend well above prior year.  Overall demand has been below expectations over the past several weeks with retail demand remaining sluggish, due in part to concerns of higher consumer costs.  Recent reports show that for the month of May, retail demand was down compared to same time last year.   Demand is typically good as we move closer to the upcoming 4th of July Holiday. Herd liquidation has continued at an unprecedented rate with the month of May seeing record levels.  Year to date cow liquidation numbers are up 17% compared to 2011, which makes current numbers the largest numbers in modern history.  This is being caused in part due to the ongoing severe drought conditions being seen across a large section of the west and mid-west.  Available labor remains a concern at multiple plants as production on certain items continues to be impacted with shorts and allocations common on some items and pack sizes. The extreme heat seen across much of the country is having an impact on the cattle herd with reports of additional herd losses being seen over the past few weeks, with Kansas seeing a substantial impact as triple digit temperatures caused additional stress on the herd.   

 

Grinds- Market is firmer. Buying activity for grinds has been good over the past few weeks. Increasing consumer costs in other categories typically helps to improve demand on ground beef as consumers look for more cost valued protein.

 

Loins- Market is weaker. Buying activity has been lighter as we moved through this week as retail demand remains below expectations.

 

Rounds- Market is steady.  The market has held mostly steady as we moved through this week as overall demand is lighter than planned for this time of the year.

 

Chucks- Market is steady to firmer.  Buying interest has been improved as buyers have been looking for more value priced beef cuts.  Demand for grinding is pulling additional product into that channel. 

 

Ribs- Market is unsettled.  Buying interest has eased as we moved towards the end of this week and is being seen in the asking prices from the major packers as they look to get inventories more in line with demand.

 

 

Market is mixed. Total pork production for last week was even with prior week but was down 0.2% compared to same time last year.  Total headcount for last week was 2,372,000 as compared to 2,444,000 for the same week last year.  Live weights for last week were even with prior week, but up 8 lbs. from same time last year.  Available labor continues to improve compared to prior months, yet it is still well below necessary levels; this continues to be a concern at multiple plants along with transportation challenges.  Shortages and allocations are commonplace and are expected to continue as we progress through the year.  Further processed items remain in lighter supply due to the limited labor.  Demand leading up to 4th of July has been improved with multiple cuts seeing upward pressure.

 

Bellies- Market is firmer. Buying interest has been good as we moved through this week helping to push the market higher. Bacon remains on allocation with multiple suppliers due to ongoing labor concerns.

 

Hams- Market is firmer.  Demand for deli items is seasonally improving and helping to put pressure on the market.

 

Loins- Market is steady to weaker.  Buying activity has been lighter as we moved into this week helping to push the market lower as the week progressed.

 

Butts- Market is firmer.  Demand has been seasonally improving helping to keep inventories moving and the market has been pushing higher over the past few weeks.

 

Ribs- Market is firmer. Buying interest has picked up over the past few days as buyers look to cover their needs ahead of 4th of July.

 

 

Market is steady to weaker.  Total headcount for week ending 6/18/22 was 163,515,000 as compared to 167,805,000 for the same week last year.  Average weights for last week were 6.39 lbs. as compared to 6.38 lbs. for the same week last year.  Chick placements on fryers for week ending 7/23/22 are estimated at 166.6 million headcounts.  Placements for previous week were 166.1 million and same week last year was 167.3 million.  Demand patterns are starting to soften on some categories in the chicken industry.  Jumbo boneless, WOGS, and wing demand is trending soft.  Tender volume is steady but is showing some signs of declining demand.  Business on the back half of the bird continues to be in best shape with solid volume from both the domestic and export channels.  On the supply side, hotter temperatures in the Midwest and Southeast are causing lighter bird weights.  Processing schedules continue to be average to reduced.

 

WOGS- Market is weaker.  Demand from the fast food QSR channel is starting to taper off.  Retail deli remains stable but is showing some signs of lessoning demand.  Supply is available across most sizes with more spot activity being reported.  Market is trending downward on all sizes.

 

Tenders- Market is unsettled.  While volume remains adequate for select and jumbo tenders, it is the QSR channel that is providing the best support.  Foodservice and retail sales are showing slightly reduced demand.  With higher menu prices and retail prices, consumer demand has appeared to hit its peak and is now starting to weaken.  Supply is tight.  Market levels are flat, and buyers remain cautious.

 

Boneless Breast- Market is weaker.  Demand for jumbo sized boneless breast has been in a downward tailspin for the month of June.  As consumer demand has lessened, supply is now outpacing demand.  Further processors and distributors continue to be cautious on spot purchases in a declining market.  Market on jumbo boneless is trending lower, medium size product is showing some weakness, and select sizes are holding steady.

 

Leg Quarters and Thighs- Market is steady.  Demand from the export and domestic channels is consistent.  Retail volume on drums, thighs, and legs quarters is reported as good.  Thigh meat is holding steady, but some reports are starting to surface that demand from the deboners is less than expected.  Supply is available and the market is holding its own.

 

Wings- Market is weaker.  The foodservice channel continues provide adequate demand on jumbo wings.  On the other hand, medium and small wings are experiencing declining demand as further processors are keeping their finished inventories tight.  Supply is available on all sizes.  Market is flat on jumbo wings and trending lower on medium and small sizes.

 

 

          

 

Market is steady to firm.  Total headcount for week ending 6/18/22 was 3,680,000 as compared to 4,026,000 for the same week last year.  Average weights for last week were 30.48 lbs. as compared to 31.15 lbs. for the same week last year.  Good seasonal demand continues to be reported across most categories.  Supply continues to be a major issue as the effects of HPAI are now becoming more evident and pronounced.  Whole birds, breast meat, white meat, and parts are in an oversold position due to lack of supply.  Demand for all categories continues to outpace supply.  Market levels continue to hold firm or trend higher.

 

Whole Birds- Market is firmer.  With freezer stocks are reported to be 13% less than the 10-year average, any spot activity being shown to the marketplace results in premiums noted.  Reduced future production remains a concern to both suppliers and customers alike.  Supply is hard to find on the open market.  Market levels are moving higher.

 

Breast Meat- Market is steady to firm.  Demand remains steady as summer seasonality is in full swing.  Market levels has been rising over the last two months and have peaked for the time being.  That may be a sign that supply, and demand may be coming to a balance point.  Market levels are holding steady and remain at historical highs.

 

Wings- Market is steady.  Demand for whole wings and 2-joints are reported to be good due to seasonal business.  As the supply side is constrained, order fulfillment is the main priority.  Market is trending sideways.

 

Drums and Thigh Meat- Market is steady.  Drums continue to be supported by summer business trends and spot volume is hard to uncover.  Thigh meat is fully supported by deboners, further processors, and retail needs for turkey grinds.  Market on drums and boneless thigh meat is flat.

 

 

Inflation concerns are being noted as having an impact on multiple categories such as crab, lobster, and shrimp.  Demand has eased in these categories and the market is expected to be more unsettled as we move through the coming weeks.

 

Gulf Shrimp- Market is weaker.  New season landings have been very good with Gulf White Shrimp seeing the largest amount of improvement in inventories. 

 

Black Tiger Shrimp- Market is steady to weaker.  Lighter buying interest is helping to keep pressure on the market.  The lower priced white shrimp market is helping to put pressure on the Black Tiger market.

 

White Shrimp- Market is steady to weaker.  The substantial number of imports over the past few months combined with slowing demand is putting pressure on the market.

 

King Crab- Market is unsettled.  Demand has eased over the past several weeks and the market has continued to push lower.  Imports are expected to be lighter over the coming months helping to keep the market more unsettled.

 

Snow Crab- Market is weaker.  Demand has pushed much lower as we have progressed through this year.  The high prices that we saw from the Fall and into early this year have helped to slow buying interest, and the market has pushed sharply lower over the past several weeks. The market is forecasting to push even lower as we continue through June due to the light demand.  Even with the sharp drops, pricing is still well above normal for this time of the year.  Year to date snow crab imports through March are down over 48%.  The ban on Russian Seafood is expected to have an impact on this market as 30% of snow crab product sold last year was from Russia.

 

Warm Water Lobster Tails- Market is weaker.  New season production is helping to put downward pressure on the market and helping to push prices lower from the sharp highs that have been seen for several months.  Buying activity for lobster is light, due in part to inflationary concerns impacting multiple seafood items.

 

North American Lobster Tails- Market is steady to weaker.  Demand from Europe and Asia has been improved over the past few weeks.  Larger sized product is in lighter supply than other sizes and is not seeing the downward pressure this week that other sizes have continued to see.

 

Salmon- Market is mixed.  Buying activity has been below expectations over the past few weeks helping to push the market lower from all regions on farmed salmon.  The Wild Salmon market is unsettled as new season product begins to make its way to market.  Availability is varied between fishing areas and species.

 

Cod- Market is firm. Available inventories have been limited for several months and ongoing production and logistical issues are keeping pressure on the market.  Product coming back out of China continues to see upward pressure due to the ongoing labor and logistical challenges

 

Flounder- Market is firm. Production issues and delays out of China are causing issues for the market. 

 

Haddock- Market is firm. Inventories are light for an active demand. Higher production costs and more limited inventories are putting pressure on the market.  Shipping delays are adding additional challenges as well.

 

Pollock- Market is firm.  Retail demand has been quite good and putting stress on already light inventories.  Production and logistical issues continue to hamper availability.

 

Domestic Catfish- Market is firm. Inventories have been limited for several months. Allocations remain commonplace and are anticipated to continue as we head further into 2022. Inventories are limited on all sizes and well below current demand. 

 

Tilapia- Market is weaker.  The market had been surging higher over the past several months due to strong global demand, freight costs, and increased import costs.  Demand has seen softening over the past few weeks due in part to the higher prices.  The past few weeks have seen this trend reverse as overall lighter demand, lower Ocean Freight costs, and lower replacement costs are all combining to put downward pressure on the market.

 

Swai- Market is weaker.  Imports have been improved and helping to improve overall inventories.  The high prices that were seen in the market over the past several months helped to slow demand while the imports were improving.  Total Swai imports through March are up over 14% compared to same time 2021. 

 

Scallops- Market is steady to weaker.  The market for domestic product has pushed lower on multiple sizes with good inventories for current demand.  The import market is holding steady as we moved through this week.

 

 

Cheese

Market is weaker. The CME block and barrel markets are both down again this week. Cheese production is busy nationwide, with milk supplies abundant in all areas. Labor shortages and scheduled downtime are affecting production somewhat in all regions, with plant downtime pushing excess milk into the plants that are continually operational. Inflation appears to be taking its toll increasingly as the weeks go by, leading to softness in demand in both the retail and foodservice arenas nationwide as customers pare back spending due to higher prices. In the Northeast, milk production and supply are good, cheese production is busy, and inventories of cheese are abundant. Northeastern retail and foodservice demand are both steady to weaker. In the Midwest, milk availability is continuing to grow, though some contacts report that labor shortages and downtime for maintenance continue to keep them from running full production schedules. Overall cheese demand in the Midwest is meeting seasonal expectations in retail and foodservice, though that demand does appear to be softening as consumer prices rise. In the West, foodservice and retail demand are both weakening, with most contacts, again, blaming consumer cutbacks due to inflation. Cheese production is busy in the region, but delayed deliveries and ongoing labor shortages continue to somewhat depress plant activity.

 

Cream Cheese

Market is firm.  Inventories are limited, and allocations and cuts should continue to be expected for the remainder of the year. Multiple suppliers are not taking on new business, and inventories are expected to remain noticeably light through Quarter 4 of 2022.  Labor, logistics, and packaging issues are all contributing to the current industry-wide situation. Both foodservice and retail sectors are being affected.

 

 

Market is steady.  The CME Butter Market is down just slightly again this week. Butter production nationally is steady, despite tightening cream supplies that are being exacerbated by summer heat and ice cream production. In the Northeast, butter production is busy, though staffing shortages are a drag on plant output. Foodservice and retail demand are both still softening in the Northeast this week, mostly blamed on higher consumer prices. In the Central region, production of butter is steady, though cream supplies are tight and are having to be supplemented by loads coming from the western states. Labor shortages are also a drag on production in the Central, as tight cream supplies are causing many plants to switch to more labor-intensive micro fixing shifts, which only exacerbates the labor issues that have been reported in the region for months.  Foodservice and retail demand in the Central are steady to weaker this week as the region enters a seasonal dip in demand. In the West, demand for cream remains high as both ice cream and butter producers are in high gear moving into the summer. Still, with better cream availability than other regions, butter makers are generally able to keep busy barring labor issues, and cream loads are still being shipped out to the Central and East to pad inventories in those areas. However, selling cream loads out of the region may slow down in the coming weeks as fuel prices are driving up hauling costs significantly. Demand in foodservice and retail continues to weaken in the region due to higher prices at both grocery stores and restaurants. Butter production in the west is steady, but below seasonal expectations for this time of year, due to persistent labor shortages and higher hauling costs for production materials. There is some concern among contacts nationally over the level of butter inventories going into the fall, as the widespread labor issues in plants nationwide are keeping many producers from padding their inventories during this time of year as they normally would.

Market is firmer.  Retail volume continues to be on rise as lower shelf prices and promotional activity are the main drivers.  In times of high inflation, it is noted that consumers tend to gravitate to shell eggs as a big part of their weekly diet.  Foodservice and fast-food demand is reported as very good as due to Americans resuming more active travel schedules.  With the market at seasonally high levels, buyers continue to be cautious and are maintaining a weekly turn approach.  Supply has tightened on medium and large sizes.  Market is moving higher on both medium sizes and large sizes.  National weekly shell egg inventory reports shell egg inventory down 3.4% over last week.

 

Breaking stock demand remains very strong and highly active.  With foodservice demand trending strong, further processors are trying to keep pace with this robust activity.  In addition, graded product is in high demand and that is adding to the overall increase in activity.  Supply is tight and the market is being pressured.

 

 

Market remains firm. Average soybean price has increased by $.40 per bushel from March. Scattered showers are expected through the weekend across the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, which bodes well for crop development, considering the recent widespread heatwave. It will be a nice reprieve especially for the drought-stressed regions of the Western Plains, which are forecasted to receive above average precipitation. This reprieve may be short-lived, however, as Increased temperatures are anticipated within the next two weeks. With supplies continuing to tighten, crop concerns are heightened and are being watched closely.

Durum market is firmer. Pricing has risen by over 200% due to the durum harvest having been severely impacted by drought conditions. The harvest was also then affected by heavy rains at the end of the crop season.

Market remains firm. Planting progress continues to improve. Manitoba planting progress is currently at 87% through Mid-June vs 65% last week and 99% on average. Q3 Canola projections are still tight, but margins are improving.

Market is firm. Drought conditions in Spain created concerns for the 2022/2023 crop. With availability of sunflower oil being uncertain due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict, prices for olive oil have risen drastically, as demand for this and other vegetable oils have spiked.

Market is firm. Excessive rains are slowing the crop progress in Arkansas, which is the top producer of rice in the U.S. Additional rains are forecasted for next week.

Market remains firm. Sugar prices continue to increase in some markets, due to demand outpacing supply. Prices on all sugar types (granulated, powders, brown and liquid products) will remain at inflated levels through summer.

Market is firm. Supply is struggling to keep up with demand. As a result, prices are high and does not show any signs of retreating soon.

Market is firm.  Due to severe weather conditions this past growing season, the pea crop was short of expectations and suppliers are projected to start running out of supply incredibly early in Q1 2022. Replenishment will be with the new pack in June.  Allocations and cuts to orders should be expected as we head through the coming weeks.

Market remains firms. 2022 planting has been completed. With domestic corn supply already tight, all eyes now are on the weather, particularly in the south, where hot and dry weather is placing increased stress on summer crops.

Market is firm. Pricing remains high. This is a result of the short crops harvested in 2021 due to adverse weather conditions.

Current national shortage due to on-going labor shortages and supply chain issues.

Market is firm. Due to growing conditions having been described as “catastrophic” with periods of severe drought, production in Ghana has decreased by 31% over the previous year. Ghana is the second largest cocoa producer after the Ivory Coast. The United States is the largest buyer of cocoa beans from Ghana.

Market remains firm. Record heat in North America and the floods in Europe resulted in crop shortages that pushed prices of durum wheat to near-record levels. Along with the shortages that have been a worldwide issue for durum wheat, packers in Europe are now facing an increased cost of energy, which has increased by 400% vs 2021. The next harvest season is in July for Europe and October for North America.

California Pears are progressing nicely. Harvest in the Pacific Northwest is currently 23% lighter than last year’s crop.

Two frost events, one lasting for four full evenings during the last week of February and another in Mid-April, have damaged and impacted the harvest. Tonnage for some suppliers is anticipated to be 15.5% lower than the 2021 harvest.

Early and mid-season plantings continue to grow and develop nicely.  Late season planting is still developing. Overall, the crop is looking favorable.

Drivers affecting the 2022 new pack price increases:

  • The price of steel has increased 90% to 105% over previous year.
  • Transportation – 34% increase in freight year over year. Diesel fuel currently at $5.72/gallon versus an average of $2.43/gallon last year.
  • Packaging increases.
  • Labor issues.