Market Report

BEEF

The market is steady to firmer. Total beef production for last week was up 3.5% versus the prior week and down 6.1% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production is down 5.3% compared to the same timeframe last year. Total headcount for last week was 638,000 as compared to 675,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, total headcount is 26.12 million head which is down 4.6% from last year. Live weights for last week were up 3 lbs. from the prior week and down 12 lbs. from the same time last year. The beef category has two opposing variables that are affecting the current situation. On one hand, higher retail and inflation are limiting weekly features and demand. On the other hand, lower cattle inventory is keeping product limited. Cattle futures for October and December are unsettled due to the high historical levels that have developed. The reduction in slaughter levels by about 50,000 head per week over the past month has kept the market firming up. Fed cattle slaughter was reported to be down 6.9% over the last month. While the beef cutout is reported to be soft, market levels vary by primal and packer. Seasonal trends point towards the cutout increasing slightly between now and Thanksgiving. On the flip side of things, the cutout also dropped 5% in October in 2020 and 2021. Even though choice and select cutouts moved lower over the last month, the market appears to be supported.

 

Grinds – The market is weaker. Higher retail and less feature activity is affecting demand. Availability varies among the packers. Market levels on 73% and 81% grinds have been moving lower since the August highs.

 

Loins – The market is steady to firmer. Demand is fair but limited supply in keeping the category squeezed a bit. Availability remains mixed between the packers. Negotiated business is starting to push the market higher.

 

Rounds – The market is steady to firmer. As the consumer looks for value in the beef category, rounds and roast products are getting an uptick in demand. Availability varies among packers. Market levels are holding firm with strong undertones.

 

Chucks – The market is steady to firmer. Demand for chucks and clods was slow to start the month but continues to show improvement. Chucks and clods are getting more feature activity. Supply varies by supplier and specific cut. Trade levels are being pressured higher.

 

Ribs – The market is steady. Retail and foodservice demand is moderate to good. Buyers are starting to look at their anticipated needs over the next few months. Reduced slaughter has put product availability at a premium. Availability varies depending on the supplier. Trade levels are mostly firm.

PORK

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The market is steady to weaker. Total pork production for last week was up 0.4% versus the prior week and down 0.7% compared to the same week last year. Total headcount for last week was 2,610,000 as compared to 2,570,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were up 1 lb. compared to the prior week and down 6 lbs. versus last year. Hog slaughter numbers continue to outpace last year and are up 1.7% YOY over the last four weeks reported. Overall demand for pork is moderate, but slowing down as seasonal volume tends to wane this time of year. The pork cutout has been moving lower with ham and bellies values being the cause of the adjustment. Export volume is reported to be moderate to fair. Market levels continue to inch lower as we enter the Fall months.

 

Bellies – The market is steady to weaker. Retail and food-service demand is moderate to fair. Limited feature activity is slowing overall volume. After demand peaked in August, weekly business is more consistent. Supply is available and varies by supplier. The market continues to be pressured lower.

 

Hams – The market is steady. Seasonal demand from further processors is moderate to fair. Export business is status quo for the time being. Supply varies among packers. Market levels are holding even.

 

Loins – The market is steady to weaker. Bone-in and boneless demand is slowing down as retail volume is slowing a bit during the Fall months. Supply varies by packer. Market levels continue to adjust lower on bone-in and boneless products.

 

Butts – The market is steady to weaker. Domestic demand is fair and export volume remains moderate. Supply is ample due to the higher slaughter numbers. Compared to previous years, market levels are considered higher than normal. The market continues to be pressured downward.

 

Ribs – The market is steady. Foodservice and retail volume is moderate for an off-season time of the year. Availability remains varied by supplier. Market on back ribs, spareribs and St. Louis ribs are mostly flat.

 

CHICKEN

The market is steady to weaker. Total headcount for the week ending 10/21/2023 was 169,995,000 as compared to 173,981,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.58 lbs. as compared to 6.62 lbs. for the same week last year. Overall category demand from the retail and foodservice channels has slowed a bit and suppliers are pushing more excess product. Demand for boneless breast meat and tenders continues to be reported as soft. Activity on WOGS, parts, and wings is moderate to fair. Export demand on leg quarters remains stable for this time of year. The supply side continues to be challenged with higher-than-expected bird weights.

 

WOGS – The market is steady. Even though retail deli and fast-food are considered out of season this time of year, these channels continue to perform very well. Supply is limited and varies by plant. Market levels holding even.

 

Tenders – The market is weaker. Foodservice and QSR demand are underperforming expectations on jumbo and select tenders. This lack of demand is trickling down to the portioning side of the business. Supply is available with some excess. Market on jumbo tenders is moving lower and select product is flat.

 

Boneless Breast – The market is weaker. Foodservice demand on jumbo boneless remains sluggish, retail business on medium boneless is weak, and QSR business on select product is moderate. Supply is available and varies by plant. The market for jumbo and medium boneless is dropping. Select boneless is moving sideways.

 

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is steady to weaker. Export demand for bulk leg quarters is fair and domestic retail business on 4/10 leg quarters is good. Thigh meat demand is starting to wane as further processors watch their production schedules. Supply varies by plant. The market in leg quarters and parts is stable. Thigh meat is being pressured lower.

 

Wings – The market is steady. Wing demand improved greatly in August and September. Over the month of October, demand is moderate and consistent. Availability of fresh product is tight. The market is holding even on all sizes.

SEA

Gulf Shrimp – The market is unsettled. Demand for domestic Gulf Shrimp has trended down due to competitive pressure from the import market.

 

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is slightly weaker. The lower priced white shrimp market is helping to keep pressure on the Black Tiger market.

 

White Shrimp – The market is slightly weaker. A better balance between supply and demand is being reported, however, supplies remain adequate to fully adequate with moderate demand.

 

King Crab – The market is unsettled. Russian King Crab inventories continue to dwindle, due to the import ban imposed over a year ago. Demand for the remaining product is moderate to active.

Snow Crab – The market is steady to firmer. Demand has been moderate to active with supplies being adequate to barely adequate.

 

Warm Water Lobster Tails – The market is unchanged. The market has trended downward due to supplies being fully adequate and light demand. It is reported that volume sales are falling short of usual expectations.

 

North American Lobster Tails – The market is steady to firmer. Supplies are adequate to barely adequate with moderate demand.

 

Salmon – The market is weaker. Supply of Wild Salmon continues to rise and is not being met with similar demand. The market for frozen fillets out of Chile are barely steady. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

 

Cod – The market is steady to weaker. Demand remains below expectations as supplies continue to be adequate to fully adequate.

 

Flounder – The market is steady. The market is mostly unchanged.

 

Haddock – The market is steady to weaker. The market continues to be mostly unchanged while seeing lower pricing on all sizes. Supplies are reported as fully adequate with a quiet demand.

 

Pollock – The market is steady to weaker. Lack of demand has continued to put downward pricing pressure on the commodity.

 

Domestic Catfish – The market is steady to firmer. Demand for domestic catfish remains down due to competitive pressure from the import market.

 

Tilapia – The market is firmer. Reports of lighter supply and increased costs overseas are being met with moderate demand.

 

Swai – The market is weaker. Supplies are fully adequate, and demand remains lackluster.

 

Scallops – The market is steady to weaker. Recent landings have been on the lighter side, but demand has been barely adequate.

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Cheese

The market is mixed. The CME Block market moved weaker as we progressed through the week and trended weaker than the week prior. The CME Barrel market moved firmer as we moved through the week and trended firmer than the week prior. Cheese processing continues to be limited by decreased milk volumes. According to the USDA, some cheesemakers say that lower milk availability has worked in their favor as running production schedules at capacity for most of the year was taxing on both the equipment and employees. Cheese production is overall reported as steady. Demand for cheddar is the strongest of the American-types cheeses. Mozzarella remains in high demand due to steady foodservice orders. Curd sales are reported as seasonally busy. Retail demand is reported as strong, while food-service demand is reported as steady across most regions.

In Europe, milk production is declining throughout many regions. Some cheesemakers have reported impacts to production due to tighter volumes while others are operating busy schedules to keep up with demand. Demand for cheese in Europe continues to outpace production. Retail demand for cheese is reported to be strong while food service demand is steady. Cheese prices are reported as steady to higher in Europe.

 

The market is firmer. The butter market trended firmer as the week progressed and moved firmer than the week prior. According to the USDA’s latest report, cream supplies are tight throughout the country. Demand for cream is far outpacing supply. Butter production overall is mixed. Some butter plant managers have noted that contracted loads of cream have helped to keep churns active while others report production schedules running less than anticipated volumes due to the lack of cream supply. Food-service demand for butter is reported as steady across most regions while retail demand is reported as softening. Export demand for butter is reported as moderate to light

The market is steady to weaker. In the retail sector, demand is being reported as fair. Foodservice and distributive business has declined as purchasers push off ordering to work through expensive holdover and bring in new inventories at cheaper prices. Export business continues to be good with supportive business coming from Canada, Mexico, and the Pacific Rim. Canada has maintained heavy demand in anticipation of their Thanksgiving.

Supply is available on medium and large sized shell eggs. Inventories have risen due to higher productivity and weaker demand. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory up 1.2% and breaking stock inventory up 7.4% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category remains moderate to good. Further processing business for raw whole egg and liquid whites is moderate and mostly transactional. Demand from Canada has been strong as they are in the middle of their Thanksgiving pull. With the increased export demand, a floor has been established, for the time being, in domestic values due to a lack of surplus. Discussions regarding holiday demand are currently quiet but may start picking up soon. Supply is available on liquid whites. Trade levels on liquid product and liquid whites are mostly flat, but strong undertones are starting to develop.

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This report represents information for the week ending JUNE 23 , 2023.

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TURKEY

The market is steady to firmer. Total headcount for the week ending 10/21/2023 was 4,607,000 as compared to 4,377,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 30.12 lbs. as compared to 29.08 lbs. for the same week last year. Overall demand on whole birds is static while demand for parts and breast meat is starting to pick up slightly. Spot loads for whole birds are met with little buying interest. Demand for breast meat, bone-in parts, and dark meat is moderate to good with some improvement. Export sales are fair, but suppliers are having to deal with the HPAI restrictions abroad. The recent reports of HPAI around the country have made the supply side vigilant about bird health during the Fall months. Market levels continue to hold firm with strong undertones.

 

Whole Birds – The market is steady. Most loads shipping this month are a result of pre-booked orders for frozen and fresh birds. Spot availability is mostly on heavier sizes. Supply varies by size. Market levels are mostly flat.

 

Breast Meat – The market is steady to firmer. Demand from the retail deli and foodservice channels has improved over the past few weeks. Supply is available. The market is showing a bit of strength.

 

Wings – The market is steady. Demand for whole wings is good from the export channel. Domestic needs for two-joints are moderate. Supply is available on a plant-by-plant basis. Market on whole wings is a full-steady.

 

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is steady to firmer. Overall demand for drums has steadily increased over the last month. Overall activity on back half parts is fair. Supply varies by plant. Market level on drums and thigh meat is being pressured higher.

SEAFOOD       

Gulf Shrimp – The market is unsettled. Demand for domestic Gulf Shrimp has trended down due to competitive pressure from the import market.

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is weaker. The lower priced white shrimp market is helping to keep pressure on the Black Tiger market.

White Shrimp – The market is steady to weaker. A better balance between supply and demand is being reported, however, supplies remain adequate to fully adequate with moderate demand.

King Crab – The market is unsettled. Russian King Crab inventories continue to dwindle, due to the import ban imposed over a year ago. Demand for the remaining product is moderate to active.

Snow Crab – The market is steady to firmer. Demand has been moderate to active with supplies being adequate to barely adequate.

Warm Water Lobster Tails – The market is unsettled to weaker. The market has trended downward due to supplies being fully adequate and light demand.

North American Lobster Tails – The market is steady to firmer. Supplies are adequate to barely adequate with moderate demand.

Salmon – The market is weaker. Supply of Wild Salmon continues to rise and is not being met with similar demand. The market for frozen fillets out of Chile is steady. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Cod – The market is steady to weaker. Demand remains below expectations as supplies continue to be adequate to fully adequate.

Flounder – The market is steady. The market is mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is steady to weaker. The market continues to be mostly unchanged in seeing lower pricing on all sizes. Supplies are reported as fully adequate with a quiet demand.

Pollock – The market is steady to weaker. Lack of demand has continued to put downward pricing pressure on the commodity.

Domestic Catfish – The market is steady to firmer. Demand for domestic catfish remains down due to competitive pressure from the import market.

Tilapia – The market is firmer. Reports of lighter supply and increased costs overseas are being met with moderate demand.

Swai – The market is weaker. Supplies are fully adequate, and demand remains lackluster.

Scallops – The market is steady to weaker. Recent landings have been on the lighter side, but demand has been barely adequate.

.  CHEESE

The market is weaker. Both the CME Block & Barrel market moved weaker as we progressed through the week. The Block market trended slightly weaker than the week prior. The Barrel market trended firmer than the weaker prior. Cheese production is overall steady. Some plant managers note that cheese inventories are comfortable despite slower production schedules. Demand for cheddar cheese is outpacing other American-type cheeses. Mozzarella continues to be the most in demand Italian-type cheese due to steady foodservice orders. Retail and food service demand is reported as steady across most regions. Export demand is reported as light.

 

In Europe, milk production continues to decline with some contacts indicating that volumes are at or below that of 2022 volumes. European cheesemakers are operating steady to lighter production schedules. According to the USDA, European cheese inventories are reported as tight. Demand for cheese in Europe continues to outpace production. Retail demand for cheese is reported to be strong while food service demand is steady. Cheese exports from Europe have been reported as unchanged.

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The market is weaker. The butter market trended weaker as the week progressed and the market moved weaker than the week prior. Cream supplies are reported as mixed depending on the region. Butter production is mixed overall. Contacts have relayed that production in the Central region is more comfortable for churning. Retail production is reported as strong to steady. According to the USDA’s latest report, several plant managers are working to build up their supply for the anticipated upcoming holiday demand. Domestic demand for butter has been reported as steady. Retail and food-service demand are reported as unchanged. Export demand for butter is reported as moderate to light.

 

The market is steady to firmer. Demand from the retail channel is getting an uptick in activity as retailers place orders for the Thanksgiving holiday. In addition, consumer baking tends to rise in November. Distributive business is showing improvement as buyers move up orders for holiday business. Based on historical trends, the month of November is when the category shows strength.

 

Supply is available on medium and large sized shell eggs. Market levels are moving higher on medium sizes and flat on large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory down 1.9% and breaking stock inventory down 2.5% over last week.

 

Demand in the egg products category is reported to be moderate. Demand for liquid whites, yolks, and dried items has been soft recently. These lower market levels may jump start the further processing side of the business. Trade levels on liquid product and liquid whites are mixed as suppliers and processors test the market.

The market is soft to mixed. A slight spike later in the week has mixed long-term results on futures. The current soybean crush report showed the lowest US soybean oil stock since 2014 as we near the end of domestic soybean harvest. The good news is global supplies of vegetable oils are much better than our domestic product, keeping prices lower to compete. Renewable biodiesel demand is growing monthly with anticipated production capacity doubling by the year 2025. Soy is used mostly for biodiesel and corn mostly for sustainable aviation fuel.

FLOUR

The market is firm. Winter wheat planted is now at 68%. This is 1% below expectations but on par with the five-year average and 1% higher than last year. Wheat export inspections reached 13.0 million bushels last week, which was 16% above the prior week’s tally. It was also near the middle of analyst estimates, which ranged between 9.2 million and 16.5 million bushels.