This report represents information for the week ending September 16, 2022.

 

Market is mixed. Total beef production for last week was down 5.0% from prior week but was up 3% compared to same time last year.  Total headcount for last week was 604,000 as compared to 579,000 for the same time last year.  Live weights for last week were up 4 lbs. from prior week but down 13 lbs. from same time last year.  Live cattle prices remain well above prior year but have seen a slight dip over the past few weeks.  Buying activity is typically seasonally light the first few weeks after Labor Day before seeing seasonal shifts in buying patterns as consumers shift to cooler weather meals and buyers look to cover their needs for upcoming holiday activities.

 

Grinds- Market is mostly steady.   Availability has been a little more mixed between the packers this week.  Inflation concerns have helped to keep overall buying activity good as shoppers look to value priced proteins.  Football season and cooler weather are both typically good for demand as we move through the coming weeks.

 

Loins- Market is weaker.  Buying activity has been below expectations for multiple weeks and keeping downward pressure on the market.  Buying activity has been improved over the past few days as price points have been more attractive than just a few weeks ago.

 

Rounds- Market is steady to firmer.  Buying activity has been good for the past few weeks.  Demand typically seasonally improves as we move into the fall. 

 

Chucks- Market is mostly steady. Demand has been seasonally lighter the past few days but is common to see additional buying interest as we move closer to October.  Cooler weather is just around the corner, which seasonally means increased retail advertising.

 

Ribs- Market is unsettled.  The market has seen both higher and lower prices over the past few weeks.  Buying activity typically improves this time of year as buyers look to cover their needs for the upcoming holiday season.  Multiple packers are urging buyers to plan ahead for their needs, as the ongoing herd reductions are expected to have an impact on availability.

 

Market is mixed. Total pork production for last week was down 4.9% versus prior week and down 0.5% compared to same time last year.  Total headcount for last week was 2,243,000 as compared to 2,248,000 for the same week last year.  Live weights for last week were even with prior week but up 1 lb. versus last year.  Hog weights will typically see increases as we move through the fall months.  Available labor continues to improve compared to prior months helping to improve overall availability.  There remain pockets of issues across the country that vary by plant and items.  Export demand has improved and helping to put upward pressure on multiple cuts.  Cold storage inventories have been slowing improving with the improved production over the past several weeks.

 

Bellies- Market is firmer.  The lower prices recently have helped to improve buying interest, and the market has inched higher as we moved through this week.

 

Hams- Market is firmer.  Export demand has been improved the past few days helping to put additional pressure on the market. Domestic buying demand has been improved recently with buying activity for holiday events expected to continue to pick up strength over the coming weeks.  The high prices of turkey have some buyers looking to cover their needs with hams this year.

 

Loins- Market is unsettled.  The market has seen both higher and lower prices as we moved into this week with availability varied between the packers.

Butts- Market is steady.  Buying interest has been improved over the past few days, due in part to the lower asking prices that have been seen over the past few weeks.

 

Ribs- Market is mostly steady.  Buying interest has been seasonally lighter over the past few weeks.  Freezer inventories have been building and helping to limit larger swings in prices.

 

Market is weaker.  Total headcount for week ending 9/10/22 was 152,281,000 as compared to 148,942,000 for the same week last year.  Average weights for last week were 6.45 lbs. as compared to 6.40 lbs. for the same week last year.  Demand is declining which is a common seasonal trend during the Fall months.  Business from the retail, foodservice, and QSR channels is reported as moderate to soft.  Boneless breast, tenderloins, wings, back half parts and dark meat continue to experience weak demand.  WOGS are the only key category holding steady.  As weekly slaughter rates and egg sets rise slightly, the supply side is showing signs of improvement.

 

WOGS- Market is steady.  Retail deli volume is the key driver of this category.  Fast-food demand is slowing a bit which is expected this time of year.  Supply is very specific to bird size and that means a finite weekly amount.  Supply is tight with market levels holding even.

 

Tenders- Market is weaker.  Higher retail and menu prices continue to affect weekly volume.  Retail and foodservice business has been slowing down over the last 30 days.  With soft weekly demand, more excess supply is turning up on the open market.  Supply is in excess with market levels being pushed lower.

 

Boneless Breast- Market is weaker.  All channels are experiencing a slow-down in overall volume.  Retail demand is slowing a bit due to higher price points.  Foodservice and QSR volume have slowed down due to inflation.  Supply is available on all sizes.  Market has been moving lower on all sizes over the last week.

 

Leg Quarters and Thighs- Market is weaker.  Export demand for leg quarters continues to be weaker than expected as a result of logistics and political issues around the world.  Domestic retail volume on back half parts is moderate.  Supply is available on bone-in parts, thigh meat, and leg meat.  Market levels on bone-in parts, thigh meat, and leg meat are being pressured lower.

 

Wings- Market is steady to weaker.  Wing season has started, but overall demand remains slow.  Jumbo wings are starting to get adequate support from the foodservice channel.  Small wings continue to underperform as further processors are reported to be sitting on existing inventory.  Suppliers are now trying to promote wings through the foodservice channel, but volume remains static.  Supply is available on all sizes.  Small wings are being pressured lower while medium and jumbo sizes are holding even.

Market is steady to firm.  Total headcount for week ending 9/10/22 was 3,419,000 as compared to 3,419,000 for the same week last year.  Average weights for last week were 28.60 lbs. as compared to 32.40 lbs. for the same week last year.  Frozen orders for whole birds are now starting to ship to retailers and distributors across the country.  Further processed breast products are well supported by most channels in the industry.  Even as we enter the Fall Season, business on drums and wings continues to be strong.  Whole birds, breast meat, white meat, and parts are reported to be in a sold-out status.  Limited spot business is being reported.  Supply remains tight as slaughter numbers are below industry standards and bird weights are down.  Market levels continue to hold firm across the mix of categories.

 

Whole Birds- Market is steady to firm.  Now that frozen orders are starting to ship, the industry is starting to notice some patterns.  Most orders on smaller whole birds are being filled adequately.  Orders of the heavy Tom sizes (20lbs and up) are experiencing some allocations due to the longer grow out time.  Reduced slaughter numbers and limited freezer stocks continue to have an impact.  Market levels are holding firm and spot loads usually command a premium.

 

Breast Meat- Market is steady.  Retail deli and foodservice volume is trending moderate to good for this time of year.  Further processors are trying to keep from having to buy excess raw material off the spot market due to record high prices.  Supply levels are tight, and the market continues to hold firm.

 

Wings- Market is steady to firmer.  Export and domestic demand patterns are strong as we near the end of summer.  With limited availability on wings, demand is still outpacing weekly supply.  Market levels are being pressured higher.

 

Drums and Thigh Meat- Market is steady to firmer.  Domestic demand for drums is strong with the Tom sizes more requested.  Grocery sales of ground turkey remain vibrant as consumers look for cost efficient protein items.  Supply is tight.  Market is moving higher on drums and flat on thigh meat.

 

Gulf Shrimp- Market is weaker.  The market continues to see downward pressure across multiple sizes.  The downward pressure has eased compared to prior weeks and the changes have been more limited over the past few days.  Buying demand remains below expectations while current fishing has been positive and helping to build inventories. 

 

Black Tiger Shrimp- Market is steady to weaker.  Lighter buying interest is helping to keep pressure on the market.  The lower priced white shrimp market is helping to put pressure on the

Black Tiger market.  Inventories on large sized shrimp is more limited but the current market conditions have limited any upward pricing pressures.

 

White Shrimp- Market is weaker.  Overall demand has been below expectations for several weeks helping to keep this market more unsettled.  Inflationary concerns continue to have an impact at both the retail and foodservice levels

 

King Crab- Market is unsettled.  Availability is varied between suppliers helping to cause both higher and lower prices in the market over the past few days.  Overall demand has been below expectations for several weeks.

 

Snow Crab- Market is firmer.  Buying activity has been improving over the past few weeks after seeing large drops in the market over the past few months. 

 

Warm Water Lobster Tails- Market is mostly steady.  Buying activity for lobster is light, due in part to inflationary concerns impacting multiple seafood items.  Recent reports show that imports for July were down 51% and down 7.7% year to date

 

North American Lobster Tails- Market is unsettled.  The market has seen lower prices for the past several weeks, but the market has become more unsettled as we moved into this week due in part to reports of imports from Canada being down 34.2% and Lobster Meat being down 40.2% for the month of July.

 

Salmon- Market is mixed.  The market for farmed salmon is seeing upward pressure this week due in part to the Chilean holiday at the end of this week that is expected to hamper production.  The Wild Salmon market is seeing downward pressure due in part to retail demand being well below expectations as inflationary concerns are impacting the market.

 

Cod- Market is steady. Available inventories have been limited for several months and ongoing production and logistical issues are keeping pressure on the market. 

 

Flounder- Market is steady. Production out of China has been improved helping to increase inventories that have been light for several months. 

 

Haddock- Market is steady. Inventories are light for an active demand. Higher production costs and more limited inventories have been putting pressure on the market. 

 

Pollock- Market is steady.  Retail demand has been very good for several months and helping to move additional inventories.  Production and logistical issues have been improving over the past few weeks. The ban on Russian product is helping to keep additional pressure on this market.

 

Domestic Catfish- Market is firm. Inventories have been limited for several months. Allocations remain commonplace and are anticipated to continue as we move into the fall. Inventories are limited on all sizes and well below current demand. 

 

Tilapia- Market is unsettled.  The recent lower prices have help to improve buying interest as consumers are looking for more value priced seafood items. 

 

Swai- Market is unsettled.  The market has been more unsettled due to the large surge in imports over the past several weeks have inventories at heavier levels leading to varied prices in the market as suppliers look to move through the extra inventories. 

 

Scallops- Market is mixed.  The market for Domestic product has been seeing upward pressure over the past several days due in part to more limited inventories for a fair demand.  The rest of the market is holding mostly steady again this week. 

 

Cheese

Market is steady to firmer. The CME block and barrel markets are both up again as of midweek. Cheese production is busy nationwide, though national milk availability has grown tighter in the past few weeks. In the Northeast, cheese production is busy. Northeastern retail demand continues to weaken, and foodservice demand in the region is steady week over week. In the Midwest, milk availability is tighter than in the other regions, leading to some lags in overall production, though inventories are still available to meet most needs. Cheese demand in the Midwest in both retail and foodservice is steady, though some pizza cheese manufacturers in the region are already limiting orders to help meet all customers’ needs as we head further into Q4. In the West, foodservice and retail demand are both steady to weaker. Cheese production is steady in the region, with labor issues and transport costs still slightly limiting production schedules. National contacts still expect demand in retail and foodservice to strengthen throughout the fall, and the upward movement in the CME market over the past few weeks may be a sign of that trend taking hold after a couple of months of bearish activity. 

 

 

 

 

Cream Cheese

Market is firm. Inventories are limited, and allocations and cuts should continue to be expected for the remainder of the year. Multiple suppliers are not taking on new business, and inventories are expected to remain noticeably light through Quarter 4 of 2022. Labor, logistics, and packaging issues are all contributing to the current industry-wide situation. Both foodservice and retail sectors are being affected.

Market is firm.  The CME Butter Market is up again as of midweek. National butter production is generally active. In the Northeast, butter production is unchanged over the past week, and foodservice and retail demand are steady to stronger in the region. In the Central region, production of butter is steady. The more abundant cream supplies over the past week have led to an almost even split between churning and micro fixing, which along with a better labor situation overall, is slowly helping to improve production efficiency in the region. Central region retail and foodservice demand are steady.  In the West, cream supplies remain looser after the holiday week, allowing for busier production in the region overall. Retail and foodservice demand are steady to stronger in the region this week. There is still some concern among contacts nationally over the level of butter inventories going into Q4, as the widespread labor issues in plants nationwide, and the tightening supplies of cream over the past few months, have kept producers from padding their inventories throughout the summer.

 

Market is firmer.  Retail demand is reported to be very good across most regions of the country.  Many retailers are promoting eggs as the Fall baking season is starting.  Foodservice and QSR demand are being reported as moderate to good.  The supply side has been challenged immensely as an estimated 4 million birds were affected in the HPAI outbreak earlier in the month.  Supply has tightened considerably with many shortages being reported over the last week.  Market is moving higher on both medium sizes and large sizes.  National weekly shell egg inventory reports shell egg inventory down 4.6% over last week.

 

Market remains firm. Because of dry weather in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt, soybean production is forecasted to be 4.378 billion bushels down from the August outlook of 4.531 billion bushels. The combined good/excellent rating is currently at 56%. This is down from last week’s 57%. Soybeans rated poor/very poor went up by 1% to 14%. Soybean yields are forecasted to be lower this year by approximately 4%.  

  • Winter Wheat: Planting is underway with 10% of the crop in the ground. This is up 3% from the previous week and ahead of the average for this time of the year by 7%.
  • Spring Wheat: 85% of the crop has been harvested. This is up from last week’s 71%, but still behind the five-year average of 89%.

 

Market remains firm. Canadian production is currently at 21 million tons. This is down slightly from earlier estimates of 21.5 million tons, but it is well ahead of last year’s 15.2 million tons.   

 

Market remains firm. Corn production is currently at 13.944 billion bushels. This is down from August’s production numbers of 14.359 billion bushels. One positive: Rain has fallen in parts of southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Indiana, northern Ohio, and parts of Michigan – a much needed reprieve, which lends to giving crops a boost as they mature. Rains are expected for the northwestern part of the U.S. Midwest.

Market remains firm. The latest USDA numbers are showing total rice acres down 12%, with long & medium grain production down 8.5% and 30.5% respectfully. With a slight reduction in field yields, the total rice production is expected to be the smallest US rice crop in almost 30 years. To offset a smaller, weather-related rice crop, India, which is the world’s largest exporter of rice has imposed a 20% export tariff on long grain white and brown rice. Broken rice exports, used in animal feed by China and other countries, has completely halted.

  • Long grain rice: The inventory carryover to this year from the 2021/22 crop year decreased. With less long grain production, the available supply of the 2022/23 rice crop is forecasted to be down 10%. USDA is also expecting less sales into both domestic and export markets.
  • Medium grain rice: With California suffering from a long-term drought and the lack of water availability for agriculture, medium grain rice production, is expected to be down over 30%.